The Measure of Success: Some Methodological Considerations for Research on Institutional Performance

Central to the aims of the contemporary environmental movement, and the research programs it has inspired, is the hope of having a positive causal impact on environmental quality and on the patterns of social behavior that affect it for good or ill. Such causal aspirations lie at the heart of all environmental institutions, whether these take the form of agencies, laws, or advocacy groups. It is hoped that the Clean Air Act will lead to a decline in sulfur dioxide emissions; that the international whaling regime will cause cetacean populations to rebound; and that stakeholder consortia will increase participation and reduce conflict. As Pressman and Wildavsky (1973, xv) observed a quarter century ago, "Policies imply theories. Whether stated explicitly or not, policies point to a chain of causation between initial conditions and future consequences. If X, then Y."